>> BACK GROUND McKinsey study Dynamic development of e-mobility In 2019, sales of battery electric cars and plug-in hybrids in Europe increased by 44 per cent year-on-year to over 600,000 vehicles, concludes a recent report from management consultancy McKinsey & Company Deutschland. Europe’s development thus stands out: In China, e-car sales increased by only 3 per cent to 1.2 million, while in the USA the market declined by as much as 12 per cent compared to the previous year to around 300,000 cars, McKinsey calculates. According to the company’s figures, a total of 2.3 million e-cars were sold worldwide in 2019, 9 per cent more than in 2018. Europe was able to increase its global market share to over a quarter. In 2019, e-cars accounted for 2.8 per cent of all new registrations. Nor- way, as the most mature e-car market in Eu- rope, still leads the McKinsey-Electric-Vehi- cle-Index, with which the management con- sultants McKinsey & Company measure the development of e-mobility in 15 countries. Only quarter of all e-cars sold are plug-in hybrids “China remains the largest market in the world, the supply of local Chinese products has increased significantly,” says Nicolai Müller, senior partner in McKinsey’s Co- logne office. “However, demand in Europe has risen sharply. Further momentum can be expected, namely from the increasing range of products with which manufacturers want to meet the CO2 limits.” By 2021, manufac- turers will have to bring over two million e- cars onto the market in order to avoid fines from the European Union. With over 110,000 e-cars sold in 2019, Germany is con- sidered the third-largest market worldwide and the largest in Europe in absolute terms. There is a large selection of models in Eu- rope: After China with almost 170 available e-car models, Germany is already catching up with over 80 models. Six other European countries follow in third to eighth place in the ranking. Tesla is extending its lead as an e-car manufacturer worldwide: in 2019, the company sold 368,000 vehicles – 300,000 of which alone were Model 3, the world’s best- selling e-car. With BMW (133,000 e-cars sold) and VW (85,000), two German brands are in the top 10, with compact cars and SU- Vs (30 per cent) scoring particularly well with customers, accounting for 44 per cent of the market share. According to the study, k c o t s r e t t u h S : o t o h P According to management consultancy McKinsey, Germany was the third largest e-car market worldwide with over 110,000 vehicles sold in 2019. the trend towards pure battery electric vehi- cles (BEVs) is also continuing: 74 per cent of all e-vehicles sold in 2019 were BEVs, while plug-in hybrids only achieved a 26 per cent market share. “The manufacturers’ model offensive is in full swing,” says Patrick Schaufuss, junior partner at McKinsey and author of the analysis. The industry has announced 600 new e-car models by 2024: Chinese carmak- ers are in the lead with 169 models, followed by Japan (145) and Germany (102). Parallel to the model announcements, the manufacturers also want to expand bat- tery capacities. By 2025, up to 1,000 GWh of production capacity is to be created, the majority of which will be in China (up to 610 GWh), Europe (up to 290 GWh) and the USA (150 GWh). As in the vehicle mar- ket, the study found that Europe is most dy- namic in this area, with an annual growth rate of up to 47 per cent. McKinsey methodology Since 2010, the Electric Vehicle Index devel- oped by McKinsey has been examining at country level the status quo of the 15 most important nations for electric mobility: China, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, India, Iceland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the USA. The index examines the market and industry sides of e-mobility. On the market side, it analyses how large the market share of e-vehicles is in the overall market. On the other hand, incentives such as subsidies, the existing infrastructure and the available supply of e-vehicles are as- sessed. The industry EVI examines how successful the respective automotive indus- try in the country is in the field of e-mobili- ty. Factors such as the current and future share in the worldwide production of elec- tric vehicles and important components such as electric motors and batteries are n taken into account. 32 32 Parking trend international no. 2-2020